Monday, December 31, 2007

Bears finally string two wins together.

Devin Hester really is rediculous....

The D played well, giving up a lot of yards, but coming away with turn overs and getting their hands in the passing lanes all day. The runnung game gve them a lot of trouble however.

Ron Turner called another good game, and from Lovie's post game press conference, it sounds like he'll be back next year.

Orton was inaccurate at times, but did well enough to compete for the starting job next year.

All in all an entertaining game to end the season.

I did want to add one piece on what's wrong with the QB rating, the simple version is it places far too much emphasis on tochdowns, and there is no context to the statistics. Actually my real problem with it is the name, it doesn't in anyway measure the efficiency of a QuarterBack, what it seems to attempt to measure is the efficiency of the passing game. Even in this reguard I still think it places too much emphasis on TD's, but rename it to Passing Game Rating and it has some meaning.

Orton's passer rating was >100 in the first half of the game despite a completion percentage of <50% and <50 in the second half because of the INT. Watching the game you'd have been hard pressed to say he played better or worse in either half.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Thoughts on a Bears win.

The bears beat the packers in all 3 phases of the game.
Special teams dominated, which is something you can only ever say about the Bears.
The Defense helped by the poor conditions shut down the Packers offense, minus one big running play.
Despite 4 early false start penalties, the O-Line looked better with St Clair starting at Guard, the weather helped here too, it forced the Bears into simpler blocking schemes, which seemed to suit their running game better.
Orton had a very solid game, should have had two touchdowns (Moose dropped one), what was interesting though we're the drops, 3 on the day where the ball got to the receiver very fast just as they turned. In my mind it's interesting because despite the weather Orton was far more accurate than his first start, and I think it was a function of him throwing the ball harder to overcome the weather, it seems to be the touch passes where Orton has struggled thus far, and I'm interested in how he plays against New Orleans.

All in all a great team win..... Something I can say for the first time about the Bears this year.

Edit - And since I've bagged on him all year.... Props to Ron Turner, who called a great game in horrible conditions.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Orton not the answer.

A horrible offensive performance. The playcalling didn't help him out at all and the Bears need to start him the remaining two games, but in this start at least he looked very much like a 3rd string quarterback.

The defensive effort was good, Urlacher looked like a man without a bad back, Vasher and Tillman had great games.

But now it's officially all about 2008....

I hope the Bears organization can make any coaching changes that are coming soon after the season ends, and decide what their offensive identity will be in 08 and draft accordingly.

Todays game and the Giants game demonstrate yet again that turnovers do not win games if you can't score points off them, lets forget running when you get off the bus and look at the talent we have and build something that works around that.

Friday, December 07, 2007

And Grossman down for the rest of the year!

The Redskins game was horrible to watch with the injuries and total in-effectiveness running the ball. Two interceptions in back to back plays, Five stupid penalties on a single drive an a field goal when you have first and Goal at the 1.

They had the oportunities to win it but like many games this year, they just found a way to loose. I will say that Garret Wolfe looked promising in the second half as did Hester when getting more time on the field at reciever.

They're still not mathematically eliminated...... But who cares, let's be realistic it's about next season now. We have a long week to prepare for Minesota, lets give Orton a shot, let's see more of Hester at wide reciever, more of Wolfe at running back, more Olsen, and Bradley. Let's see what we have to build around on Offense.

I think the injury limits Rex's chances of coming back next year, he won't need surgery, but he's out for the remainder of the games this year, and I'm not sure he'd done enough to win over the front office. Having said that it gives other teams less of a chance to evaluate him as well, which might keep his price in check and give him more incentive to sign a short term deal with Chicago.

If Rex does go Turner is definitely gone, consistency in the offensive system while grooming a quarterback would be the only reason to retain him. Turner might be gone either way. And I who we bring in at offensive coordinator will probably be the most interesting question to get answered this off season.

Outside of OC I think we'll see more turn over on the coaching staff, perhaps not Babich or Smith, but some one in the coaching staff will be held accountable for the inability of the players to execute, it'll likely be position coaches.

I still say let Briggs go, he's expensive and although he's had a stellar season this year, I'm not sure that cap space can't be spent better either on the offensive line, at defensive tackle or safety.

Either way unless Orton is a total standout in how ever many starts he gets, we're coming into next year with big question marks at most of the offensive skill positions and the O-Line. The Defense should be more stable though, and if we can stay healthy next year, it should be a lot better than 07 for the Bears.

On the plus side expectations in 08 will be a lot easier to meet...

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Random Thoughts on Coaching

The Bears coaching staff have taken a lot of flak this year, many fans calling for their heads. After one of the more disapointing seasons I can remember this is hardly surprising. Although certainly not the worst Bears team I've watched, the Bears were expected to contend for the superbowl.

I remember reading in the preseason that scouts considered the Bears "bullet proof" at every position except quarterback. Not really how it panned out.

But how much of it is the coaching? How much the injuries? and how much the players?

A lot of fans poit to Lovies demeanor with the press and note how emotionless he is and play up some of the more inane statements he makes, obviously drawing comparisons to Ditka. I think this is just a different coaching style,and I don't think it's relevant except where it backfires which I'll get to in a minute.

If you look at the Bears talking to the press as a whole I think you'll find they all have much the same ring, nothing much said few fingers pointed. This is likely policy, because they want to address problems internally without the additional friction of outside scrutiny, and in a lot of ways that's fine. Where this policy backfires is that the local media has to write something, and if Lovie isn't providing the headlines, it'll be the team, or the quarterback, or the running back or the linebackers bad back.

I actually believe this policy increased the external pressure on Grossman and Benson, which is contrary to it's intent. Having said that I also suspect that the continual criticism of Grossman in particular probably fostered a solid sense of team around him. I just think it would have been more productive if it had been around Lovie, and some of the pressure could have been lifted from Grossman sooner.

None of this explains why the Bears have so significantly underperformed this year, I think the fundamental problem with passive management/coaching is that you hand ownership over to the players. This can be a great asset especially when you're playing the underdog, players have chips on there shoulders and something to prove, but it leaves you wide open to overconfidence on the players part. As a coach you have to step in before this starts, but it's difficult to recognise and respond to.

So it's all coaching then?

Well no, it's pretty clear how much our defense suffered last year down the stretch with far fewer injuries than we have now, the system is clearly very dependant on personnel in key positions. Indy seems to manage to plug people in to a similar system (with the exception of Bob Sanders) with more success, so maybe it's not a fundamental flaw in the system.

The offensive problems have stemmed from an in-ability to run the ball, and coaches seemingly unable or unwilling to adjust for this. And this is my primary issue with the coaching this year, games seem to be called as if we can protect the passer, effectively run the ball and as if we have a great defense to get the ball back. This has led to endless 3rd and longs and 3 and outs.

So Ron Turner gets the bulk of my criticism, should we replace him? I don't know, if Ron goes we'll be looking at a new offensive system next year and that probably means poor offensive production while the transition occurs. On the other hand if we can resolve the O-Line issues, get a working running game, and our D steps up he's probably capable of calling a good game plan.

Monday, December 03, 2007

So what now?

The Bears hopes for the post season ended when Grossman's final pass in to the end zone was batted down. But it should never have come to that, this game might have been the most frustrating of the year. It was reminiscent of the 1990's and early 2000 Bears, where they would have a lead and some how find a way to loose in the 4th quarter.

After taking possession on an interception by Urlacher, the Bears came out in a no huddle offense, and looked good doing it, they drove down the field and scored. By half time it was 7 13 but the score could have been a lot higher.

This was a game of missed opportunities, the ball bounced off Hester's shoulder pads on a long pass that would have been a touchdown, there we're two well called screens, which would have been big plays if it the guard could have made the first block. One of the lineman knee'd an opposing player after the play on the two yard line turning a probable touchdown into a fieldgoal.

But the trouble really started when they were two scores up, everything suddenly got very conservative on offense, and drives started to all look alike, Peterson run for 1 or 2 yards, false start penalty (they had 5) something else that didn't work and a long pass to Berrian on the left side which wold fall incomplete.

Berrian was open on that play most of the day, but it was a 40 yd pass in high winds and freezing weather, Grossman just couldn't put it in the right spot. But then why try and get 40 yards every time you need 15? I understand doing it a couple of times a game but I think we saw that pass attempted 4 or 5 times. Of course had it worked Ron Turner would have been a genius.

Grossman played well for the most part under a lot of pressure, some of the sacks were as much his fault as the O Lines, trying to scramble to the outside rather than stepping up.

But getting back to the original question what now, I'm not sure we've seen enough of Grossman to really evaluate him for next year, he's looked solid since coming back, and he's looked solid in the situations he looked bad previously. But I think he'll probably play for at least another couple of weeks, with Orton possibly coming in for the last couple of games.

The O-line has to be a priority in the off season, they've played better over the last couple of games, and may be that means it's just a case of replacing one or two, or at least getting some younger players to start building a line for the future. We don't have the cap space to make a play for a top wide receiver or running back, and I don't see us drafting either position high up.

The D is difficult to gauge, clearly a lot of the issue is injuries, but that's a perennial problem, we need to add depth on the D-Line and we need someone who can come in and dominate at safety. I think we should let Lance Briggs go, he's had stellar year, but he's expensive and we have other needs.

There has been speculation on trading Devin Hester, I'm not sure anyone would be willing to offer what he's worth to the team.